When I mention the word app, what comes to your mind? If you are like many of us, you are probably thinking of something you install from an app store and run on your mobile device like your phone or tablet. The thing is, the mobile space is only a slice of the larger app-flavored pizza. We have a lot more devices that are capable of running apps these days:
Not only do we have more devices, each of these devices has their own unique userbase and ecosystem. In this post, I want to help paint a picture using numbers, words, and some diagrams of how diverse the world of devices that can run apps really is. Why am I doing this? I have no idea!
Onwards!
The 2016-2017 Platform Snapshot
The original article used a 2016-2017 platform snapshot to discuss phones, tablets, and desktop/laptop computers. These are historical figures, not current market estimates. Statcounter measures sampled page views, rather than counting every device or unique person:
The preserved chart shows 54% for phones, 5% for tablets, and 41% for desktops/laptops. Phones and tablets together account for 59% of the illustrated traffic. That does not mean 59% of people use only mobile devices.
Traffic share tells us something different from an installed-device count or a count of unique people. The next historical illustration combines platform estimates from different sources. Its labels should not be treated as comparable counts of people:
There are some important problems with those labels. Google's 2017 Android announcement counted 2 billion monthly active devices, not 2 billion distinct people. The 2016 Apple report counted 1 billion active devices across products including Macs, Apple TV, and Apple Watch, not just iOS. The desktop figures were broad platform estimates too. Many of these devices can use the web, but the combined web total in this older drawing is not a valid unique-user count:
Adding those overlapping, differently defined platform figures does not establish 4.4 billion unique web users. One person may use several devices, and some device categories overlap between the source reports themselves. We need compatible definitions, dates, and a way to account for overlap before estimating a combined audience. The device overlap is illustrated in this older comScore report:
A person using both a phone and a laptop belongs to both device audiences. Even a sound estimate of a platform's audience would not tell us how many people will adopt our particular app. We still need evidence about the users and tasks we hope to serve.
Forecasts for Emerging Devices
The original discussion also looked ahead to other device categories. TVs, wearables, and virtual or augmented reality create different input and display constraints. The forecasts below record expectations at the time; they are not measurements of what later happened:
The linked 2017 TV-market report discussed a forecast for 2020. Its device categories included more than smart TVs, such as consoles and streaming devices. Before using a forecast like this, check its date, what it counts, and whether later measurements support it. A device forecast does not establish today's number of potential app users.
The next chart comes from an older IDC forecast discussion. It shows device-shipment volumes in millions for 2015, 2016, and a projected 2020. The green 2020 bars are forecasts, not observed results:
The IDC discussion also considered differences between categories. Shipment volume alone does not tell us how many people actively use a device, how much revenue a category produces, or whether our app will fit it. Those are separate questions to investigate.
Conclusion
My motivation for writing this is to help you as an app developer (or potential app developer) think bigger about where your apps can live. What we saw in this article is just a small glimpse into one of the factors you'll use to decide how your app will be built and the users you hope to target. There are other glimpses we'll look at in future articles, so stay tuned.
Just a final word before we wrap up. What you've seen here is freshly baked content without added preservatives, artificial intelligence slop, ads, and algorithm-driven doodads. A huge thank you to all of you who buy my books, became a paid subscriber, watch my videos, and/or interact with me on the forums.
Your support keeps this site going! 😇
