View Poll Results: Will Flash still be widely used in 2 years?

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  • Yes

    74 64.91%
  • No

    40 35.09%
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Thread: Will Flash be widely used in 2 years?

  1. #1

    Will Flash be widely used in 2 years?

    I figured for the first "featured question" series from the main site, this seems like a good topic to get people interested

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  2. #2
    TheCanadian's Avatar
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    Noo doot aboot it, eh?
    I'm going to say almost definitely; 2 years is a pretty short time.
    Proud Montanadian
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    Maybe getTimer() or TweenMax is the answer to your problem . . .

  3. #3
    I'm on the 'no' side.

  4. #4
    Whilst Actionscript is still great, the whole 'Flash' experience for me is feeling tired. And although dragging objects onto the stage was the way for me to get into coding, AS3 didnt really click with that designer/coder vibe that AS2 had. Code sharing and live experiences like JSFiddle are really modern ways to get inspired. So Flash just isnt evolving enough to take its strengths, such as 'drag design then code' and rich media ie: sound/camera/hardware etc, to become something exciting rather than an inconsistent annoying plugin.

    Albeit saying that - I don't ever see myself dumping it in my trashcan - it's still cool!

  5. #5
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    In what way? flash games? flash websites and banners? The mobile packager and/or stage3D?
    I would say it will change general use quite a bit in 2 years but will still exist I would hope.

    Unless Adobe kills it, I don't see how it could go away anytime soon. Of course it has already vanished from many websites hasn't it? Was there not a time where you weren't "modern" if you didn't have a flash site?

  6. #6
    The definition of "Flash" will probably change in the next 2 years, probably more devoted to gaming and apps, with HTML5 taking over the "website" aspect of the market.

    BTW, AS3 classes and methods will almost certainly eventually have HTML5 counterparts, so working in HTML5 will not be so unflash-like.
    For example, v12 of the Greensock Tweening Platform in HTML5 is currently in beta.
    So AS3/greensock skills will transfer smoothly to HTML5 development.
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  7. #7
    I voted "No". Flash will still be around, but I don't think it will be widely used. Once you get visual authoring of HTML5 content, more people will feel comfortable doing what they've always done and publishing to a new framework. They probably won't even care that it isn't Flash anymore.

    The only thing that can change this is Apple's devices supporting it. Otherwise, Flash for most people will become a non-entity. It's a shame really.

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  8. #8
    I've been fighting my opinions on this for about a year and a half. My majority Flash web-based work turned to stand alone Flash-based kiosk work about 3 years ago. It's such a rapid development environment that creating engaging, unique, touch screen Flash applications is arguably much faster than any other language. Even knowing that creating the UI in Flash and using technologies such as C# or C++ to wrap your Flash UI so that it can communicate with internal and external hardware is an amazing option.

    I'm currently working a lot with third party digital signage applications that, again, wrap Flash UI apps.

    That all said, those who love to develop, in Flash's current state, it doesn't hurt to learn and explore many other technologies if Adobe does cut back on the player — as it's done with mobile devices.

    If Adobe continues to finesse it's mobile OS compilers, it may continue to be a resource in that venue, but I think most developers will shun that, and the compiler will never meet the performance of ground up, Objective C development for example.

    My two cents.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by jeancnicolas View Post
    Whilst Actionscript is still great, the whole 'Flash' experience for me is feeling tired. And although dragging objects onto the stage was the way for me to get into coding, AS3 didnt really click with that designer/coder vibe that AS2 had. Code sharing and live experiences like JSFiddle are really modern ways to get inspired. So Flash just isnt evolving enough to take its strengths, such as 'drag design then code' and rich media ie: sound/camera/hardware etc, to become something exciting rather than an inconsistent annoying plugin.

    Albeit saying that - I don't ever see myself dumping it in my trashcan - it's still cool!

    I think your views are pretty similar to my own! Well said.

    Quote Originally Posted by creatify
    If Adobe continues to finesse it's mobile OS compilers, it may continue to be a resource in that venue, but I think most developers will shun that, and the compiler will never meet the performance of ground up, Objective C development for example.
    There are good opportunities to improve the performance of mobile AIR stuff, since they're freed from the restriction of having cross-platform bytecode as the final compilation target. I don't know enough about Objective-C's object model to speak with any authority, but I know that it has to support Smalltalk-style dynamic messaging, so I think that that feature alone makes a strong case for ActionScript's future ability to match it, if that makes any sense. I kind of got the impression that Adobe is looking to kick some legacy compatibility in the next release of AS, so that may allow for quite a bit of optimization.

  10. #10
    An area Flash is still actively used in is online video. Unless a solution for streaming DRM'ed content is implemented in the HTML5-capable browsers (or the HTML5 spec defines a DRM specification), it will be a while before Flash gets dethroned there.

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  11. #11
    TheCanadian's Avatar
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    Noo doot aboot it, eh?
    I've noticed youtube has started using an HTML video player (that always crashes).
    Proud Montanadian
    We tolerate living and breathing. And niches.

    Name Brand Watches

    Maybe getTimer() or TweenMax is the answer to your problem . . .

  12. #12
    I'm on the 'yes' side.

    Hopefully there will be more of everything, and not just one dominating way of doing things codewise. I hope nobody wins in the fight over the developers unless there is reason to deserves so.

    So by "widely used", I would prefer Flash to be as widley used as anything else within the same niche.

  13. #13
    I don't think it's widely used now if you think about how many websites and apps there are out there that aren't in Flash compared to those who are. And yet, like many of you I still work with Flash (particularly Flex) on a pretty consistent basis. I think the movement to code outside of a plugin has started and it will continue that way. If you look at what sencha for example is doing, they are basically recreating the Flex sdk (that may be stretch but you know what I mean). Once browsers mature and there are cross browser video component plugins you'll start to see less and less of Flash. It's hard to put a number on it but if I did I would say that's about 4-6 years away.

  14. #14
    TheCanadian's Avatar
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    Noo doot aboot it, eh?
    Quote Originally Posted by Digitalosophy View Post
    cross browser video component plugins
    They have that, it's called Flash
    Proud Montanadian
    We tolerate living and breathing. And niches.

    Name Brand Watches

    Maybe getTimer() or TweenMax is the answer to your problem . . .

  15. #15
    haha yes it indeed is

    No but seriously once someone writes a nice wrapper over the video component (popcorn.js does this and a few other ones as well that I've seen) and it becomes widely used, I think you will see less and less of Flash aside from (and hopefully) application development. I think that Flex has become a fantastic application development sdk and it will continue to grow.

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